The announcement first of all these additional 200 Senator armored personnel carriers we’re going to look at them as we speak just how helpful is that military aid at this point in the war well first of all let me say that in a war every bit of equipment ammunition is always helpful so it’s just a question of degrees the weapon systems the these Senator vehicles.
There are they are predominantly as we know it’s security type vehicle riot control tape vehicles but they have a reasonable amount of armor on them and they can be weaponized so in what they’re going to be used for now it appears is like Battlefield taxi.
If you will they are not an infantry combat fighting vehicle they cannot go head to head with with with Russian tanks and so on but they can Ferry troops up close to the front lines they can take some shrapnel type fire or small round fire disperse the troops.
Pick up wounded and bring them back so it’s a battlefield taxi concept extremely useful as all all pieces of equipment these days are okay we’re the defense minister had no news as she said both in English.
French was on the issue of whether Canada will send any leopard tanks to Ukraine you heard from the Ukrainian defense minister his words these are crucial very important to the battle this kind of heavy Weaponry Canada’s decision Andrew rests on a decision from Germany can you explain the connection sure now Canada has the leopard twos.
I believe we have approximately 82 in stock but there is a licensing agreement with the Germans that all countries that have bought leopard two cannot export these weapons to any other third party without German agreement.
The Germans right now are withholding agreement they are also not committing to send their own leopard twos now the German position is sort of founded on the fact that they have been very reluctant to provide Ukraine with what they consider to be offensive weapons as opposed to defensive that’s a very difficult finish.
But the point is that Germans do not want to escalate the conflict and they feel that if they provide these tanks or they have felt this up until now that it could expand the war and escalate to a potential war with NATO and nuclear confrontation that kind of thing this is where the SP day party of the German Coalition has been particularly strong their position that unless the Americans commit they’re Abrams Tanks which are very different kind of vehicle that the Germans don’t want to go it alone.
But that’s that’s today now Schultz is speaking the American the German Chancellor in Davos this afternoon he may comment on this so we have to watch for that but whatever happens on Friday in Ramstein at the American hosted NATO defense ministers meeting where of course Anand will be there they will have the tank issue front and center.
The new German foreign defense minister who’s just been appointed will be there and will address the issue so we are waiting with baited breath on the German decision.
So we heard a number of questions to the Ukrainian defense minister on this point we have talked you and I over the war about how the German defense strategy has shifted markedly surprisingly.
But it hasn’t gotten to this point yet there is something called The Leopard Coalition Finland and Poland they want to send their leopards to Ukraine and they’re among the countries putting pressure on Germany we did hear Ukraine’s defense minister say he expects Germany will relent what do you think yeah the the the speculation right now the broad speculation is the Germans will relent.
But I’m not going to predict that because that’s a pure political decision to be taken by the German Chancellor and he’s got his calculations along with his cabinet so we’re gonna we’re just gonna have to wait and see I mean the mood is that they will because I think let me say that people now are coming to understand that this war has its limits.
I think people have relearned the rules of the Cold War that how you can actually fight limited conventional Wars within certain limits without having spillovers where you’ve got contact between NATO and Russian forces in the potential third world war with the potential nuclear escalation.
I think there’s a level of comfort now if I can use that word that people are understanding the rules of the road and how you fight limited conventional Wars underneath the nuclear threshold and not have an unintended expansion of a war or Armageddon that kind of thing it is day 329 of this war as we speak and on the tank point the UK has already committed to send 14 of its tanks it’s a different kind of tank it’s the Challenger.
The British foreign secretary said this that his country wanted to bring the war to a conclusion on this day 329. so as we look at a couple of other headlines from what else is happening the U.S Andrew sending an ammunition that it has stored in Israel Ukrainian soldiers are training on the Patriot missile defense system in the U.S right now the U.S Secretary of Defense.
He’s been meeting with Ukrainian military leaders in Poland all of this going on what is happening on day 329 are we reaching a sort of Crescendo in this we are reaching a crescendo in terms of preparation for major offensive operations by both Ukraine.
We expect the Russians as well in the late winter early spring period and from a western point of view there is this now massive movement and this is where the Germans May relent on the leopard we’ll see the point is there is this massive movement to provide all the arms that are possible to Ukraine to assist them in this upcoming offensive operation.
This offensive operation as well as the Russian offensive operation will then determine the next phase of this war because right now the lines for the last few months have been more or less stalemated there is kind of a strategic pause Sani but they are minor relatively speaking to the Strategic front so we’re going to see how these the offensive operations will then shape the Dynamics politically after the after these offensives take place.
It will shape the potential essential for an end to the war or not because it may not be decisive no side may have a decisive advantage and if not then the fighting will will probably continue but the effects of this offensive will still influence the political calculus of both the ukrainians the West on one side and the Russians on the other side.
I should also say that Russians really view this now as a war of Russia against the West with Ukraine as the proxy and that’s how they’re looking at it now Vladimir Putin just this morning said victory in Ukraine is unavoidable Anita Anna just this morning as we heard her say live Ukraine will win is it realistic to contemplate an outright Ukrainian military victory at this point Andrew this this would be a difficult call my betting thus far would be that the armies would fight each other to a level of exhaustion I believe.
Then perhaps some kind of a ceasefire this is not the Ukrainian position I realized that nor Canadian position they we talk about a total Victory which means expelling all Russian forces from occupied Ukraine in creating including Crimea for me this is a very tall order the Russians are not weak they’re strengthening their forces.
They will defend particularly Crimea with everything they’ve got so I think that we’re looking at more or less some kind of a saw-off than a outright Victory by either side for the Russians see this as I said as a war against the West Ukraine’s the proxy they want a regime change in Ukraine I don’t think they’re going to get that either but this is this is a massive war that’s why these operations these offenses will continue to influence the political calculus but we can’t see where it’s going yet we just know we’re going to have some heavy fighting first.