covid

Risk of COVID-19 during China’s peak tourist season

The Chinese are about to embark on some 2 billion trips this Lunar New Year some or possibly many of them will be carrying the coronavirus with them remember?

covid

This is the event that sparked the first mass spreading of covid-19 from Wuhan these are the latest scenes from an emergency board of a hospital in Shanghai and it could get worse epidemiologists to say some parts of the country’s side haven’t yet had covert outbreaks.

But with the travel Rush later this month the disease will find its way into every corner of the country virologist Julian Tang is an honorary associate professor of respiratory.

Sciences he joins us from Leicester in the UK we’ve got a massive discrepancy in official figures and independent projections of daily deaths in China right now since zero coverts were` dropped last month.

The World Health Organization says deaths are being underreported and how dangerous is the virus right now for the Chinese.

So this Forest has been around in other countries elsewhere globally and the risk to China is really in the vulnerable population hasn’t been yet vaccinated with a very effective vaccine.

The one they brought out in China we know from previous studies shows a relatively low efficacy, uh probably around 50 to 60 percent compared to 90 80 to 90 for the FISA vaccine but of course, the viruses mutated are far beyond these original vaccines.

So the virus is not going to be prevented from transmitting. But a better vaccine prevents more severe diseases as you predicted. Omicron would be less severe and more infectious how do you see the virus?

Now mutating or or moving ahead once it spreads around the world again well I was thinking exactly what I predicted so even data from the US and Europe and elsewhere show.

The virus is actually evading current immunity for natural previous vaccination but it’s not causing more severe disease in those countries which have been well vaccinated even with the mRNA vaccines.

That work very well the problem again is if you have more cases due to high transmissibility you’ll get the more severe disease and more deaths, particularly in those who are poorly vaccinated or with low vaccination rates or with vaccines doesn’t work very well.

The vaccination rate isn’t that good amongst the elderly in China is it now and there are some cultural issues around that I know from friends and colleagues in Hong Kong where the elderly are more suspicious of the vaccine.

Then say westerners are what may be causing that low-up table take of the vaccine in China and on the topic of new variants. The who says the Chinese covert data shows no new variant um is that a big um sigh of relief for virologists for uh us as well yes.

But that’s not that surprising this virus knows no borders it’s been transmitting very quickly across the world from even from the alpha variant and then along with Delta and now Omicron which is even more transmissible.

But luckily it’s less severe so I’m not that worried about the virus per se for the rest of the world I just hope that uh the vulnerable people in China can get a good enough vaccine to prevent severe disease.

And death uh can you tell us do China and your opinion have the outbreak under control Um well I mean the rest of the world doesn’t have the outbreak under control either because living with it.

So I think that’s a relative uh comparison um I think what’s happening in China is that because they’ve delayed. So long getting a good uh effective vaccine into their population.

The viruses spread well beyond the capabilities feeding the mRNA vaccines in the west to be controlled by those vaccines. So they see a kind of double whammy with a delayed vaccination uh coverage uh with you know the highly effective vaccine plus.

The ongoing mutation in Omicron evades these vaccine immunities and just tell me again you mentioned you have uh colleagues and acquaintances or relatives in Hong Kong.

How observant and stringent do Hong longer need to be right at this time with Lunar New Year coming up I think the Hong longer are very well primed for this they know that borders are opening this weekend uh masking is the norm there uh but luckily.

So far the variants in China are very similar to those circulating elsewhere so I don’t think that’s going to be a major issue um. But they may get people coming in across the board don’t get falling sick in Hong Kong if they have vulnerabilities.

Then a house um putting more Bergen on the Hong Kong Healthcare System there Cape urologist Julian Tang thank you so much for the insights and we really appreciate your expertise.

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