Currency Market Update: In a surprising turn of events, the US dollar has reached a level above ₽99, a price point it hasn’t seen in over a month and a half.
This surge in the dollar’s value comes after a period of relative stability, with the last significant fluctuations occurring back in August when the US currency was trading even higher, surpassing the 100-ruble mark.
Recent Exchange Rates
As of the latest data from the Moscow Exchange, the dollar’s exchange rate has risen above ₽99, marking its highest point since August 15. Simultaneously, the euro’s exchange rate has also seen an increase, reaching ₽104.
At 14:28 Moscow time, the US dollar is trading at ₽98.8, while the Chinese yuan is at ₽13.538.
Factors Behind the Dollar’s Rise
The dollar’s recent ascent in value began at the end of the previous month. The Central Bank had last set its official rate below ₽97 on September 28, indicating a gradual strengthening of the dollar. On the same day, the euro had dipped below ₽102. The yuan, too, has shown an upward trend in recent weeks.
It’s worth noting that significant fluctuations in exchange rates were observed in mid-August. At that time, the official dollar exchange rate had briefly touched ₽99.4 on August 11, and during trading, it even exceeded the 100-101 ruble range. The euro, at its peak, officially cost ₽110.7.
Changing Forecasts
In early September, the Central Bank published the results of a macroeconomic survey, in which analysts from major banks and investment firms participated. They revised their forecasts for the ruble exchange rate, predicting that the average annual dollar exchange rate for this year would be ₽85.5. This figure marked a significant deviation from their July prediction of ₽81.8 per dollar.
Towards the end of September, the Ministry of Economic Development released a forecast for socio-economic development until 2026. According to this forecast, the ruble exchange rate is expected to gradually strengthen until the second quarter of 2024, reaching its peak in June. Following that, the situation is expected to stabilize in the range of ₽90-₽92 per dollar.
The dynamics of the currency market are complex and influenced by a myriad of factors, making it crucial for investors and businesses to stay informed about these developments and adapt their strategies accordingly. As the dollar continues its ascent, it remains to be seen how these shifts will impact the global economic landscape.
For the latest updates on currency exchange rates and their implications, keep a close eye on the ever-evolving world of international finance.